The "seesaw" performance of blue-chip stocks and small-cap stocks is vividly interpreted in this round of market. Large-cap blue chips and core assets with stable operation and better fundamentals have obviously underperformed the small-cap sector of emerging technology sectors.What are the reasons why more resilient blue chips are not popular in the market? Many people in the industry interviewed by reporters believe that the macro-economy has not yet recovered significantly, and the uncertainty of the pace of monetary and fiscal policies next year has led to the fact that although the weighted blue-chip stocks have a low valuation advantage, they have not obtained the unanimous expectation of funds.Looking further, humanoid robots and AI concept leading stocks, which are the hottest in the market recently, are almost taken over by small-cap stocks. The data shows that since September 23, the humanoid robot sector has risen by the top 30 stocks, with an average increase of about 114%. Before the market started, the average market value of 30 stocks was less than 4.1 billion yuan. In terms of individual stocks, Eft's total market value was less than 4 billion on September 23, and it has risen 3.5 times since then, and it is currently about 17.6 billion yuan. The total market value of Juneng shares rose from 770 million yuan to 2.6 billion yuan; Tuosida rose from about 4 billion market value to 16.4 billion yuan.
It is difficult for investors who focus on fundamentals to exert their fists and feet in this round of market, and investors who chase small-cap stocks with hot topics make Public Offering of Fund products far behind.According to the research report released by SDIC Securities on December 8, if we want to treat this wave of "new year's market" with "innovation", it is necessary for the US dollar index to clearly turn from strong to weak and the fiscal expenditure to enter a clear expansion cycle. The pricing of risk preference turning to fundamentals may have to be further confirmed in the second quarter of next year (strong dollar turning to weak dollar+stimulus policy effectively reversing domestic demand). Looking back at history, after M1 rebounded from the bottom for two consecutive months, the market sector represented by consumption and pro-cyclical sectors will start pricing around fundamentals, which also means that if the growth rate of M1 continues to rebound in November, this extreme differentiation pricing model of large and small markets is expected to be gradually reversed.Let's look at a set of data first. The average increase of the 100 stocks with the smallest market value on September 23 to December 9 is 141%. The 100 stocks with the largest market value closed on September 23, and the average increase by December 9 was 21.5%.
SDIC Securities Research Report pointed out that from the perspective of capital, this phenomenon (micro-disk stocks hit a record high) is naturally easy to explain: the core of the incremental fund group is retail hot money, and the pricing power is not in the hands of institutions.In this context, blue-chip stocks maintained their performance resilience. In the third quarter, the single-quarter growth rate of large-cap net profit represented by Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 increased significantly, with an increase of 8.75%. The performance of small and medium-sized stocks represented by CSI 500 and CSI 1000 dropped significantly, with growth rates of -14.7% and -9.4% in the third quarter respectively. In terms of industrial chain style, finance has been greatly restored, consumption has remained resilient, growth has continued to be under pressure, and the cycle growth rate has turned negative.Compared with small and medium-sized stocks, large-cap stocks have always been known for their stable operating performance and higher dividends. According to the analysis and research report of Guotai Junan's third quarterly report, the performance of all A-shares declined in the first three quarters. In the third quarter, the net profit growth rate of all A-share non-financial and non-petroleum and petrochemical listed companies (hereinafter referred to as "all A-shares and two non-shares") was -10.8% year-on-year, which was further enlarged compared with the second quarter of 2024, with a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of -8.0%, and negative growth for seven consecutive quarters. In terms of revenue, the cumulative growth rate of all A companies in the third quarter of 2024 was -1.6%, and it was -0.7% in the second quarter of 2024, with an enlarged decline.
Strategy guide
Strategy guide
12-13
Strategy guide
12-13